Over the Next Decade, Optimistic Viewpoint of Commercial Aviation’s Growth Out of the Pandemic; Airbus to Extend Lead in Narrowbody Deliveries Against Boeing; Retirement Wave Not Likely in Near Term

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Aviation Week Network is releasing its 2022 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecasts, a 10-year outlook of the air transport industry. Produced with independent data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams, the forecast findings show the commercial aftermarket MRO demand will rapidly regain momentum with over $1 trillion in MRO demand expected, growing at a 3.2% CAGR. With increased utilization, engine shop visits are expected to yield $412.7 billion in demand with over 90,000 overhaul events projected over the decade.

“Commercial transport aircraft are due for a continued recovery with several recent examples of pent-up air travel demand underscoring the optimistic forecast. Nearly 20,100 commercial aircraft will be delivered with more than 10,000 aircraft retiring during the 10-year forecast period,” said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Services. “At risk are both the pace at which pandemic-influenced travel risks are perceived and restrictions acted upon as well as underlying economic conditions continuing their positive outlook.”

The findings include Airbus surpassing Boeing in narrowbody deliveries with the A320 outnumbering the 737 fleet by over 3,700 aircraft in 2031. The anticipated retirement wave is not likely in the very near term, but a historically high percentage of the fleet retirements, above 3%, are expected by 2028/29. Long-term aircraft retirements could signal trouble for legacy engine parts suppliers as green time and USM materials flood the engine market in the second half of the decade. The 2022 military, business aviation and helicopter forecast findings are scheduled for release in mid-October.

The 2022 Commercial Fleet and MRO Forecast findings detail market demands and industry trends accounting for the impact of COVID-19 on global fleets and MRO. By combining current fleet counts and stats, projected aircraft fleet changes, in-house flight data derived utilization projections, and segmented MRO cost analytics, the forecast delivers critical insights into the market direction.

For more information on Aviation Week Network’s 2022 Fleet & MRO Forecasts or to subscribe, contact Anne McMahon at +1 646 469 1564, anne.mcmahon@aviationweek.com or Thom Clayton at +44 (0) 20 7017 6106, thom.clayton@aviationweek.com or go to https://pgs.aviationweek.com/2022Forecasts.


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